Market Outlook: Kenya

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Latest Prices Summary for Kenya

As of 2026-03-25, the average wholesale market price for dry maize in KEN stands at 5,629 KES per 90kg, slightly higher than the seven-day average of 5,541 KES. Considering the last years' wholesale prices for dry maize, prices had a seasonal high of 5,518 KES per 90kg and a seasonal low of 5,374 KES per 90kg. Arbitrage profitability is currently below average. In various regions, prices vary, with LYANTONDE and MARSABIT reporting the highest prices at 5,903 KES and 5,883 KES, respectively, while KIRINYAGA and BOMET report lower prices at 4,827 KES and 4,524 KES, respectively. Overall, market prices show regional disparities but remain relatively stable.

Latest Prices Overview

Country Average
(As at 2026-03-25)
5,629 KES
Seven Day Average 5,541 KES
12 Month Seasonal High 5,518 KES
12 Month Seasonal Low 5,374 KES
Arbitrage Profitability
Current arbitrage conditions are BELOW average (34/100)

Price Map

Regional Prices

Lyantonde 5,903 KES
Marsabit 5,883 KES
Tana River 5,881 KES
Wajir 5,874 KES
Iburengerazuba 5,873 KES
Narok 5,862 KES
Arusha 5,860 KES
Kwale 5,827 KES
Bas-Uele 5,826 KES
Tororo 5,809 KES
Mombasa 5,803 KES
Kisii 5,785 KES
Nakuru 5,778 KES
Kajiado 5,775 KES
Isiolo 5,762 KES
Murang`a 5,737 KES
Kericho 5,734 KES
West Pokot 5,725 KES
Bungoma 5,720 KES
Murang\'a 5,719 KES
Siaya 5,698 KES
Uasin Gishu 5,666 KES
Elgeyo-Marakwet 5,660 KES
Makueni 5,631 KES
Turkana 5,607 KES
Busia 5,594 KES
Kisumu 5,515 KES
Trans Nzoia 5,507 KES
Laikipia 5,502 KES
Baringo 5,497 KES
Vihiga 5,497 KES
Migori 5,489 KES
Garissa 5,488 KES
Nyamira 5,465 KES
Lamu 5,457 KES
Mandera 5,456 KES
Kiambu 5,449 KES
Tharaka-Nithi 5,420 KES
Nandi 5,398 KES
Nyandarua 5,385 KES
Homa Bay 5,379 KES
Nairobi 5,375 KES
Kilifi 5,354 KES
Kakamega 5,342 KES
Samburu 5,322 KES
Nyeri 5,318 KES
Kitui 5,202 KES
Machakos 5,111 KES
Meru 5,098 KES
Taita Taveta 5,091 KES
Embu 4,925 KES
Murang'a 4,925 KES
Kirinyaga 4,827 KES
Bomet 4,524 KES

Summary of Seasonality for Kenya

Uganda’s current seasonal price assessment for 2026-03-25 shows that market prices are 277.00 KES ABOVE the 5-year average for April, indicating unseasonably high conditions. The normal seasonal price for April is 5352.00 ±318.00KES, while the latest national average stands at 5629.00KES. End-of-month forecasts suggest a further change toward 5627KES. In the long term, the current annual average remains 0.0% HIGHER than the 5-year seasonal average, highlighting continued price elevation.

Latest Seasonal Prices Overview

(For 2026-04-30)
Current Seasonal Price Assessment 277 KES ABOVE the 5-year average for April
(experiencing a seasonal stress)
Normal Seasonal Price for April 5352 ±318KES
Latest Country Average Price
5629 KES
End of Month Seasonal Forecast 5627 KES
Long-term Seasonal Comparison

Monthly Seasonality

Regional Price Above/Below 5-year Seasonal Average

Summary of Latest Price Predictions for Kenya

At 2026-03-25, the national average market price was 5,629.00 KES, with forecasts indicating a moderate increase to 5,648.00 KES by mid-October before easing to around 5,627.00 KES by the end of November. Regional projections show a varied pattern of price movements across the country. BOMET (+6.9%), LAMU (+5.9%), MACHAKOS (+5.7%) are expected to experience the strongest upward shifts, while moderate increases are also projected in MBALE (+5.6%), HOMA BAY (+4.3%), NANDI (+4.2%). Meanwhile, declines are anticipated in MOMBASA (-13.3%), BAS-UELE (-8.8%), KAJIADO (-4.8%), with smaller decreases expected in TANA RIVER (-3.5%), NAROK (-3.1%), MIGORI (-3.1%).

Market Forecasts Overview

Latest Country Average
(As at 2026-03-25)
5629 KES
End-of-week Country Average Forecast
(For 2026-04-13)
5648 KES
End-of-month Country Average Forecast
(For 2026-04-30)
5627 KES
Regions with Forecasted Rising Prices
(End-of-month forecast for 2026-04-30)
LAMU: +319.50 KES
BOMET: +315.33 KES
MACHAKOS: +296.25 KES
Regions with Forecasted Falling Prices
(End-of-month forecast for 2026-04-30)
MOMBASA: -772.67 KES
BAS-UELE: -510.50 KES
KAJIADO: -274.00 KES

Country Average Price Forecast

Regional End-of-month Forecasts

Laikipia Increase 1.0%
Bungoma Decrease -1.8%
Meru Decrease -1.8%
Homa Bay Increase 4.3%
Kitui Increase 0.1%
Vihiga Increase 3.1%
West Pokot Decrease -2.4%
Kilifi Decrease -0.2%
Nairobi Decrease -2.7%
Kisii Decrease -2.9%
Tharaka-Nithi Decrease -1.4%
Kajiado Decrease -4.8%
Bomet Increase 6.9%
Lamu Increase 5.9%
Nandi Increase 4.2%
Taita Taveta Increase 0.5%
Nyamira Decrease -2.7%
Siaya Decrease -2.3%
Kakamega Decrease -1.5%
Garissa Decrease -1.1%
Samburu Increase 3.3%
Murang'a Increase 2.1%
Kisumu Increase 0.6%
Nyeri Increase 2.9%
Migori Decrease -3.1%
Trans Nzoia Increase 1.3%
Isiolo Increase 1.9%
Busia Decrease -1.0%
Mandera Decrease -1.8%
Machakos Increase 5.7%
Elgeyo-Marakwet Decrease -1.6%
Tana River Decrease -3.5%
Baringo Decrease -2.4%
Nakuru Decrease -2.3%
Kirinyaga Decrease -0.6%
Turkana Increase 1.2%
Uasin Gishu Decrease -1.5%
Marsabit Decrease -2.0%
Singida Decrease -2.3%
Kericho Decrease -0.3%
Makueni Increase 2.9%
Embu Increase 3.5%
Mombasa Decrease -13.3%
Kiambu Increase 2.2%
Bas-Uele Decrease -8.8%
Nyandarua Increase 1.1%
Kwale Decrease -1.3%
Murang`a Decrease -1.5%
Wajir Decrease -1.3%
Mbale Increase 5.6%
Narok Decrease -3.1%

Trade Corridors Summary (2025Q1)

The trade corridors for agricultural products in Kenya encompass several key routes connecting major agricultural regions to crucial transportation hubs and markets. These routes include connections such as Eldoret to Nakuru and Nairobi, Nakuru to Naivasha and Nairobi, as well as routes originating from Mombasa to Nairobi and further inland to regions like Machakos and Makueni. Additionally, corridors like Gulu to Lira to Soroti in the northern part of the country facilitate trade from border areas. These corridors serve as vital arteries for the transportation of agricultural goods, facilitating domestic distribution and international trade, thereby contributing significantly to Kenya’s agricultural economy.

Trade Corridors (2024 Q1)

Eldoret⟶Nakuru⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.24)
Nakuru⟶Naivasha⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.85)
Kitale⟶Eldoret⟶Nakuru
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.39)
Mombasa⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.16)
Malaba⟶Eldoret⟶Nakuru⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.43)
Busia⟶Kakamega⟶Eldoret⟶Nakuru⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.24)
Isiolo⟶Nanyuki⟶Nairobi
(Relative Efficiency Score: 0.12)

Regional Centrality (2024Q4)

Iburengerazuba 0.9784
Majyaruguru 0.8652
Soroti 0.7531
Mubende 0.6897
Lira District 0.6342
Kapchorwa 0.5231
Iburasirasuba 0.4321
Amajvepfo 0.3678
Dar es Salaam 0.2546
Nairobi 0.1432
Kitui 0.0567

Market Volatility and Dependency (2025Q1)

Market Volatility Score Dependency Score Vulnerability Index
Iburengerazuba 0.9784 0.9784 0.9784
Majyaruguru 0.8652 0.8652 0.8652
Soroti 0.7531 0.7531 0.7531
Mubende 0.6897 0.6897 0.6897
Lira District 0.6342 0.6342 0.6342
Kapchorwa 0.5231 0.5231 0.5231
Iburasirasuba 0.4321 0.4321 0.4321
Amajvepfo 0.3678 0.3678 0.3678
Dar es Salaam 0.2546 0.2546 0.2546
Nairobi 0.1432 0.1432 0.1432
Kitui 0.0567 0.0567 0.0567

Volatility ranking/dependencies

Market Access and Efficiency (2025Q1)

Market Access Score Efficiency Score Integration Index
Iburengerazuba 0.9784 0.9784 0.9784
Majyaruguru 0.8652 0.8652 0.8652
Soroti 0.7531 0.7531 0.7531
Mubende 0.6897 0.6897 0.6897
Lira District 0.6342 0.6342 0.6342
Kapchorwa 0.5231 0.5231 0.5231
Iburasirasuba 0.4321 0.4321 0.4321
Amajvepfo 0.3678 0.3678 0.3678
Dar es Salaam 0.2546 0.2546 0.2546
Nairobi 0.1432 0.1432 0.1432
Kitui 0.0567 0.0567 0.0567